Just over one year after land borders finally reopened between Burundi and Rwanda in October 2022 after a seven-year border closure, diplomatic relations between the two East African countries are once again deteriorating.

In May 2015, Burundi‘s late president, Pierre Nkurunziza (2005–2020), was targeted in a coup attempt led by General Godefroid Niyombare. The general criticized Nkurunziza's pursuit of a third term in office, deeming it unconstitutional. Although the coup was unsuccessful, Burundi leveled accusations against Rwanda, claiming it supported Niyombare's efforts — a charge that Kigali vehemently denied. This incident triggered a crisis between the two nations, culminating in the closure of their 360-kilometer shared border.

Seven years on, Burundi reopened its border with Rwanda, which has been led by President Paul Kagame since 2000. This rapprochement was facilitated by the election of Evariste Ndayishimiye as Burundi's president in 2020, marking a significant shift in bilateral relations between the two states.

Relations notably improved. On July 1, 2021, Rwandan Prime Minister Édouard Ngirente attended the 59th independence anniversary celebrations in Bujumbura, marking a significant step towards reconciliation. Furthermore, on February 4, 2023, President Kagame participated in the East African Community Summit held in Burundi, showcasing a further thaw in relations.

Borders close again

However, the honeymoon period between the two countries only lasted a year. On January 11, 2024, Burundi once again indefinitely sealed its border with Rwanda.

Burundian officials have accused Rwanda of backing RED-Tabara, the rebel group known as the Resistance for Rule of Law in Burundi, in an assault near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on December 22, 2023. The attack, resulting in twenty fatalities, including women and children, drew widespread condemnation from the African Union.

This armed group emerged from the unrest following the 2015 electoral crisis, as segments of the populace expressed their opposition to Nkurunziza's reign.

In an interview in the French newspaper Le Monde regarding the reasons behind the recent closure of the borders, Martin Niteretse, the Burundian Home Secretary, remarked:

For its part, Kigali also accuses Burundi of supporting Rwandan rebels operating on its territory.

Several observers have suggested that the friction between the countries stems from their involvement in an external dispute in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where M23 rebels clashed with the country's Armed Forces (FARDC). Notably, on March 5, 2023, Burundi stepped into the fray in the DRC, aiming to combat the M23 insurgents, who, according to United Nations reports, receive backing from Rwanda.

The impact on the region

While Burundi's closure of its border with Rwanda might appear as a diplomatic gesture, it carries broader consequences. Rwandan nationals who were living in Burundi have been deported back to their home country. Burundian officials, however, have declined to disclose the total count of those expelled.

In response, the Kigali administration is cautioning its citizens against traveling to Burundi while simultaneously offering assurances to Burundian residents in Rwanda regarding their safety. According to an SOS Media Burundi report, Alain Mukularinda, the deputy spokesperson for the Rwandan government, was quoted as saying:

Beyond these decisions and official declarations, the economic operations of traders in both countries face significant disruptions. Speaking to Jimbere, a magazine in Burundi, one merchant reflected on the situation:

For over a year, we had been very happy trade with Rwanda had started again, only for the difficulties to resurface suddenly. (…) Now, unfortunately, selling even half of my stock has become impossible. In economic terms, this closure will have a negative impact on cross-border trade and the transport sector.

Rwandan merchants who requested the border #Ruhwa to get their fruit and vegetable supplies at #Rugombo’s market in @CibitokeProv, now find their hands are…onomic sectors, though Burundi has more to lose — particularly its informal workers and the cross-border small traders.

André Nikwigize, an economist hailing from Burundi and former principal economic adviser to the United Nations Secretary-General, as well as the founder of the NGO Partners for Peace and Prosperity, views the border closure as a politically motivated decision with potentially devastating economic repercussions. He wrote on X: 

#burundi. The closure of the border with Rwanda has considerable economic consequences. Between 2018 and 2020, Burundi lost USD 5.1 millons on its exchanges with Rwanda. Have Burundian authorities assessed the economic impact of this new blockade?

He questions whether there might be alternative, less categorical ways to solve the political issues at the heart of the conflict between the two countries.

Moreover, many Burundians regularly cross the border into Rwanda for health care treatments.

Paradoxically, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) finds itself significantly affected by the escalating crisis between Burundi and Rwanda. Given the challenges associated with land travel directly between the DRC and Rwanda, Congolese traders and travelers are now compelled to take a detour through Rwanda before reaching their intended destinations. However, the current situation impedes such movements, as this video from Voice of America shows: 

The recurrent diplomatic and security crises are exacting a heavy toll on the peaceful coexistence of the 27 million inhabitants in the region. Particularly affected are those individuals whose livelihoods are predominantly reliant on cross-border trade. Written by Jean Sovon  & Jean-Pierre Afadhali. Translated byJean-Christophe Brunet, Global Voices

Kenya's electricity imports from Uganda increased 18.4 percent in January, fuelled by a bigger demand. Data from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra) shows that Kenya last month imported 20.29 million units of power from the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited.

This is a significant increase from 17.12 million units that Kenya imported from her neighbour in December.

Read: Power imports nearly triple on biting drought

Kenya and Uganda have a power exchange programme during which either country supplies the other with power during periods of deficit.

At the close of the financial year, the country that will have exported more electricity to the other invoices its counterpart. 

In January for instance, Kenya exported 3.41 million units to Uganda, and in December, it exported four million units to its neighbour, meaning that Uganda continues to enjoy a positive trade balance in this exchange.

Besides Uganda, Kenya also imports power from Ethiopia, which has been key in stabilising local supply over the past year.

In January, output from hydro went down by 6.9 percent, which Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) has attributed to the management of the country’s water resources to maximise output.

According to Epra data, hydro output declined to 253.4 million units from 272.36 million units in December.  

KenGen says water levels in the country’s major dams have increased this month, which will enable the company to increase output from the source.

“When we hit maximum (water levels) is when we started stepping up hydro generation. Even now we have not hit maximum output as part of a long-term water management programme,” it said.

Power generation

Overall, power generation increased by 5.4 percent in January, signalling increased demand from customers.

Epra data shows that the country’s more than a dozen power producers generated 1.165 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity last month.

Read: Power imports triple on low hydro output

This is a significant increase from 1.105 billion kWh that was generated in December last year.

“Total units generated and purchased (G) including hydro, excluding exports in January 2024 was 1,165,321,330kWh,” said Epra director-general Daniel Kiptoo. By Brian Ambani, Business Daily

The Senate is set to resume its sittings today after two months recess with Senators allied to the opposition vowing to protect gains made in devolution in the last 10 years which they are accusing Kenya Kwanza administration of attempting to claw back.

The opposition allied Senators cited the Primary Health Care and Housing as some of the devolved functions which the national government has shown interest of taking over yet they are devolved functions saying that if this is allowed it might take over  more functions.

Senators allied to Azimio La Umoja have vowed to take the National Treasury and Commission on Revenue Allocation to task over failure to allocate counties Sh 450 billion shareable revenue with Treasury recommending  they get Sh 391 billion while CRA recommends Sh 398 billion. 

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna said Senators are deeply concerned about stalled projects across  counties and that they will be holding respective Governors to account since it was unfair to have public funds going to waste in projects that could have been beneficial to citizens if completed.

“The Senate will be having a busy year where as members of the Azimio coalition we are going to play our role in ensuring that we keep the Kenya Kwanza administration in check since so far it has not delivered on the promises made to Kenyans,” said Sifuna. 

The Nairobi Senator said that they Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority(EPRA) will be summoned to appear before the Senate Energy Committee to give an account of all sites where Gas filling sites are situated in the country and on whether safety measures have been adhered to.

Senate Minority Whip Ledama ole Kina said the office of the Auditor General should carry out an annual counties budget audit since it has constantly been focusing on auditing Financial statements and that there was need for it to work closely with the office of Controller of Budget.

Ledama said they will oppose plans to have one uniform system of collecting revenue since there are two tiers of governments so as to avoid unnecessary conflict instead counties should be assisted to make a good collection of their money and make proper use rather than being micromanaged. 

“Counties are now raising levies yet they do not have a basis for doing that, the County Assemblies should operate within the law, there is need to work with the Commission on Revenue Allocation to look at the basis so as to ensure that they adhere to the law,” said Ledama.

The Narok Senator said there are several key areas of accountability in counties where they have found that governors focus on development in one budget which makes the County Integrated Development Plans irrelevant as they use it for the next five year without achieving much. By Edwin Nyarangi, The Standard